No Alternative in the Middle East

At first I thought the Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon was an over reaction even given the provocation of the raid across Israel’s northern border and the kidnapping of the two soldiers.  Now it is clear that Hezbollah, which was supposed to be disarmed, has instead been vastly fortified with sophisticated new rockets capable of firing deep into Israel.  Now I think the Israelis may have waited too long to dismantle the terrorist fortress which southern Lebanon has become.

The fact that the legitimate Lebanese government is not capable of controlling or disarming Hezbollah reduced Israel’s options to either waiting for Hezbollah to become even stronger as arms from Syria and Iran continued to pour in or taking action now.  That’s not a real choice.  Israel is doing what it has to do.

Israel should not continue to characterize this as an attempt to rescue the two soldiers – as important as that is.  This would be an over reaction if that were the only provocation.  This is a necessary action to remove the growing threat from Iran’s surrogate in Lebanon.

Necessity does not reduce the consequences of the action which Israel has undertaken.  Many innocent people on both sides have died and will die as a consequence.  It is small consolation to them or their families that more would have died on both sides had Israel waited longer to act.

Nor is it clear what victory for Israel will look like.  Doesn’t matter what the Lebanese government agrees to because it is helpless to disarm Hezbollah.  The Syrians and the Iranians are happy to fight to the last Lebanese or Palestinian.  The leaders of radical Islam have more to gain from war than peace - at least as long as the war is around the borders of Israel or in Iraq.

Perhaps Israel can weaken Hezbollah enough militarily so Lebanon can reassert its sovereignty over its territory.  There must be many Lebanese who want to do that including the large community of Lebanese Christians who have been understandably silent this week. Perhaps there is a middle in the Arab and Moslem world which will refuse to suffer for the transgressions of the militants among them and will reassert itself.  Despite some attempts, hasn’t happened yet in Iraq.

It is a hopeful sign that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Arab countries have NOT vociferously supported Hezbollah.

It is unlikely that the UN is the answer.  It has a force patrolling the Israel-Lebanon border.  It manages to be out of the way during most hostilities.  The UN has taken no steps to enforce its mandate that Hezbollah be disarmed.

France, and to a lesser degree much of the rest of continental Europe, has much to gain and nothing to lose by condemning those who fight its battles for it. Russian President Putin has his own trouble-making agenda.  Doesn’t stop him from “over reacting” in Chechnya, though.

It is a good sign, although only tangentially related, that the UN Security Council  did manage to pass a unanimous and concrete resolution on North Korea even if it was watered down.  The resolution means that NK has to cease and desist missile tests or diss their Chinese patrons.  I don’t think China will take well to being dissed.  The world cannot tolerate rogue regimes or private armies.  That’s what North Korea is about. And that’s what tonight’s news from Lebanon and Israel is about as well.

Comments

[Chris Gilbey]

Great piece by Ted Koppel in the IHT today
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/21/opinion/edkoppel.php

The problem is that Saddam Hussein was a buffer that, notwithstanding the fact that he was an extremely bad human being, enabled a balance to be in place. Bush senior understood this, and that is why he didn't push all the way to Baghdad in the first gulf war. The clumsy lack of real politik from the current force in Washington is delivering the current lack of stability. Powell was right. "If you break it, you own it". Problem is that all of us are going to have to live with it. God help all the poor innocents in Israel and Lebanon and Iraq and the rest of the world who are going to die along the way.

[Mr. Floyd]

I'm in firm accordance. While the U.S. has not given a green light for Israel to hit Iran or Syria (which are the roots of the problem),both of those countries are feeling intense pressure - they're surrounded. Imagine if Saddam Hussein was the nemesis you fought to a stalemate for 8 years, and you saw him topple in 5 days!

The U.S. is providing a buffer for Israel to do what it needs to do. As much as Iran's president says he's going to unleash "unimaginable destruction", there's noting he can do other than use Lebanon to do his dirty work and keep the focus off of him while he tries to get nukes. I'd like to see him try to get past Iraq and into Syria or Israel.

If we can diffuse North Korea peacefully and keep the focus on the central front, good things can happen in the long run. It's most unfortunate; but unless there is a regime change in Iran, an attack will most certianly have to occur, and it's important for Israel to have control of what sits on its borders before that transpires. Granted, Iran can hit them very hard with missiles; but it's better to have this confrontation prior to Iran getting nuclear payloads.

[Peter]

are we allowed to talk about the Israeli kidnapping of two Gazan civilians across the border into Israel the day before the kidnapping of soldiers that you mentioned?

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/14/146258

just curious...

[Moshe Maeir]

What surprises me over and again is how the Israeli public stands fast under attack. People aren't running away and business in the only democracy in the Middle East continues almost like normal. To hear a great short interview with a 75 y.o. women who had a rocket land in her back yard go to here - http://www.esnips.com/web/m345sOtherStuff