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November 28, 2017

Don’t let the Perfect be the Enemy of the Good

Increased use of natural gas has so far been the most effective way to reduce CO2 emissions. Natural gas is an excellent complement to renewables for electricity generation since it can be used effectively at almost any scale to fill in when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.  Not surprisingly, those who sell competitive sources of energy like nuclear, oil, and coal are not fans of natural gas since it beats them on price, at least in North America. Many, but not all, marketers of renewables object to natural gas because it is a “fossil fuel” and because it is not carbon-free, despite the fact that natural gas is helping to reduce emissions and making renewables more practical.

I’m in the natural gas business so you should assume that I’m affected by self-interest like any businessperson. Nevertheless, this and my next couple of posts will be about why we should be using more natural gas to make the world a better place and why declining to do that means more carbon emissions and makes the perfect (carbon-free fuels) the enemy of the good (less emissions of CO2 and no emission of SO2 and other noxious gasses).

Let’s Start with the State of the World

Despite various climate accords, worldwide emissions of CO2 have continued to climb:

image from naturalgasnow.org

Germany, which has invested very heavily in renewables and has some of the highest electric rates in the developed world, has actually had a small increase in emissions for each of the last two years and has announced that it will miss the emission reduction goals it set for itself. Part of Germany’s problem is that it decided to shut down its nuclear plants after Fukushima. Germany also made a political decision against fracking so natural gas is expensive there (and comes in a dangerous degree from Russia). Renewable can’t replace the baseline power; Germany is burning more coal. The results are blowing in the wind.

And Now the State of the US

Our CO2 emissions continue to go down:

image from naturalgasnow.org

 

The United States is the only nation to meet the climate control goals set for it in the Kyoto Treaty – even though the US Senate never ratified it.   According to the EPA, almost all the US reduction in CO2 is result of a massive switch from coal to natural gas for electrical generation. This switch was driven by simple economics: the invention of horizontal drilling and the development of hydraulic fracturing made natural gas cheaper than coal. Fifty percent less greenhouse gasses are released per unit of energy when natural gas rather than coal is the source of that energy.

The US switched from coal to natural gas largely because natural gas is less expensive. Government didn’t drive this switch. Certainly, the Kyoto treaty had nothing to do with it.  Nevertheless, the switch and the consequent environmental benefits are “sustainable”. They are not dependent on either regulation or subsidy. The US leads the world in carbon reduction because we have allowed new technologies to reduce the cost of cleaner energy. We haven’t insisted on perfection; we have achieved good.

Next post, the state of the State of Vermont

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