Fractals of Change

If US Air Were a Bank...

The crew would've bailed out and gotten a bonus.

Save Titan!

From a NASA press release:

NASA Confirms Liquid Lake on Saturn Moon

"PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA scientists have concluded that at least one of the large lakes observed on Saturn's moon Titan contains liquid hydrocarbons, and have positively identified the presence of ethane…

""Detection of liquid ethane confirms a long-held idea that lakes and seas filled with methane and ethane exist on Titan," said Larry Soderblom, a Cassini interdisciplinary scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey…"

Methane and ethane happen to be the main ingredients of natural gas.

Now the rest of the story from Nerdville's future-detection apparatus:

Speaker Pelosi calls the House of Representatives into emergency session to vote on a bill banning "any form of hydrocarbon extraction from any moon of a ringed planet."

"The unknowns are too great;" she says. "The risks are just too high; oil companies might have even larger profits. Conservation will be discouraged. This is another cruel distraction stage managed by the failed GeorgeBush administration."

President Bush denounces Democrats in Congress for blocking America's energy independence. "The price of oil has already begun to fall in anticipation of Ticantic (sic) supplies. Americans will know who to blame at the pump."

Senate Majority Leader Reid says that he believes the Senate is willing to go even further than the House. "No further exploration of extraterrestrial sources should be allowed. We must know who authorized the use of NASA for prospecting."

John McCain promises voters that the Cassini spaceship will NOT be withdrawn from the vicinity of Saturn until its mission has been accomplished. Moreover, he says, as President he will assure that methane or ethane or whatever from Titan will be delivered to Americans at the pump free of any highway tax.

The Democratic National Committee says "this has Dick Cheney's oily fingerprints all over it. Look for Halliburton to get an enormous contract."

Ethanol producers demand that any imported Titanic ethane be rebranded and subject to a $5.00/gallon tariff.

Barack Obama points out that the Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. "As a guy with a funny name," he says, "I will be willing to enter talks with the Grand Titan with no preconditions."

Al Gore points to a more ominous part of the NASA release: "The observations also suggest the lake is evaporating. It is ringed by a dark beach, where the black lake merges with the bright shoreline."

"This is a very inconvenient truth," says Gore. "There is a growing consensus that the results of our profligate ways are not restricted to our own planet."

Ban dihydrogen monoxide

If you can't see the video, follow this link.

On the other hand, some people pay more per gallon for the stuff than they do for gasoline.

Great Time to be a Nerd

My friend Jeff Pulver was just telling me that it’s a great time be a nerd. Right on cue I walked past the poster above which I think advertises a new TV show.

On the same theme, Mary asked the other day what all us nerds would’ve done for a living if there weren’t computers or other electronic devices for us to play with. It’s a very frightening thought. I thought I’d be a writer like my father but met my first computer, an IBM 7090 mainframe, in the computer lab at college when I was nineteen (1962) and found this was a much better way to make a living. Didn’t get around to writing fiction again until a couple of years ago when I wrote hackoff.com: an historic murder mystery set in the Internet bubble and rubble – not surprisingly, nerd Dom Montain is a major character of that book.

So what would we have done? Took some thought. Not many of would have been gymnasts, super warriors, craftsman (takes fine motor skills), or very good farmers.

We would’ve counted, added, subtracted, multiplied and divided. Before there were computers, there were lots of numbers that had to be crunched by hand. When you go over the George Washington Bridge or ascend the Empire State Building, remember that the only mathematical tools for all the engineering calculations were adding machines and slide rules (easy to use for a nerd); presumably the calculations were done at least twice.

All the accounts of everything had to be done by hand. All monthly statements manually totaled (at best on an adding machine).

So we would’ve been accountants or engineers or employed by such.

It’s much more fun to teach computers to do all that work (what programming is all about); we never have to do the same thing twice – at least until we reimplement it for a new computer or operating system. And we get great toys to play with.

Jeff’s right.

Cause for Global Warming Discovered

The graphs below from an article by Natural Resources Canada show the movement of the magnetic North Pole. As the article says “The change in velocity of the North Magnetic Pole since the early 1970s has been remarkable – 9 km/yr to 41 km/yr.”

And this graph from the report of the Nobel-sharing International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows an accelerated increase in global warming during exactly the same period (left scale is difference from the 1961-1990 average).

 

Unfortunately the IPCC was distracted by the coincident rise in certain atmospheric gasses and so missed the true cause of global warming. The Director of Natural Resources Canada is precluded from running for President of the US because he wasn’t born here.

OK. This is all junk science. I admit it. Neither Natural Resources Canada nor anyone else I know of has claimed a link between this accelerated movement of the magnetic pole and global temperatures. We could invent a mechanism for cause and effect, however: the location of the magnetic pole affects the shape and poles of the earth’s magnetic field (obviously) which has an effect on incoming cosmic radiation which has an effect on cloud formation which has an effect on reflectivity which has an effect on temperature. It’s a little harder to do the opposite and imagine how warming caused the pole to move but I’m sure some smart reader’ll do that.

All this is just meant as a warning against taking apparent correlations too seriously.

John R. Christy, Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama at Huntsville and a participant in the IPCC (he calculates that he is .0001 of a Nobel Laureate) writes in today’s Wall Street Journal:

“I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

“There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations….

“It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

“Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"”

He’s not saying (and I’m not saying) that anthropogenic activity is NOT causing global warming. He is saying we have less than proof and I’m saying we’ve got to stay skeptical even as we take some obvious actions like reducing our dependence on fossil fuels that we’re running short of anyway. The Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth was deserved since it’s an effective and dramatic polemic; a Nobel Prize for shoddy science seems an inducement to substituting rhetoric for thought in making crucial resource allocation decisions.

Fast Forwarding Reality

From an article in today’s New York Times:  “..more viewers [than in the past] are watching shows delayed rather than live, using TiVo and other DVRs. Research indicates those viewers are more likely to fast-forward through spots than those who watch live TV.”

Gee, that’s sort of strange.  I’d much rather fast-forward live TV than my DVR.  Fast-forwarding live TV gets you to the future.  You can fast-forward Bloomberg, for example, and know what stock prices are gonna be an hour from now.  Fast-forward ESPN to the end of the race and then call your bookie.

Lobbyists and PACs can fast-forward to November, 2008 and target their contributions only to the winners-to-be.  We can fast-forward CNN and find out what milestones the Iraqi government will meet.  We can find out which movies to see by fast-forwarding to next year’s Oscars.  We could also fast-forward some reality shows but we’d see the same stupid things then that we see now.  Same problem with fast-forwarding The Donald and most celebrities.

Back in the present, it’s pretty clear that pre-recorded programs are worth more than live ones most of the time because you can watch when you want and because you CAN fast-forward past the commercials and dull spots (full disclosure: I don’t always watch when the bad guys have the ball or are at bat.  I skip all celebrity news.).

So let’s fast-forward the technology news into the future.  Streaming (real time) video is a solution looking for a problem.  What we really want to do is download stuff fast and then view it at our own pace.  The interesting thing is that a straight forward evolution of today’s Internet gets us to faster and faster downloads while streaming is problematical. Expensive technologies like Verizon’s FiOS are designed to support the streaming we don’t really want.  Hmmm….

Related posts:

Who Needs Streaming Video?

Television and the Internet

Will the UN Save the World from Asteroids?

Reuters story on CNN: “An asteroid may come uncomfortably close to Earth in 2036 and the United Nations should assume responsibility for a space mission to deflect it, a group of astronauts, engineers and scientists said on Saturday.”

In this exclusive post, Fractals of Change takes you into the future by pre-viewing newscasts from CNN (technology is under NDA and can’t be revealed). 

It’s 2010.  The UN has accepted this immense responsibility (along with increased funding).  Much sooner than expected, the challenge has arrived.  A comet alters the course of a Mount Everest size asteroid; there is a 88.7% that it will strike the earth in 399 days according to certain scientists.  Others, of course, dispute this number. 

An audit reveals that the son-in-law of the Secretary General has misspent most of the funds allocated for the UN anti-asteroid rocket program.  His defenders point out that no threat was expected before 2036 by which time his “alternative investments” would have paid off and the funds would have been replaced with interest.  It’s unfair to condemn him for the precipitous timing of this threat, they say.

Iran currently holds the rotating chairmanship of UNAACA (United Nations Asteroid Avoidance Coordination Assembly).  The chairman regrets to say that the committee will not be able to meet until the current sanctions imposed on Iran for above ground nuclear weapon testing are lifted.

299 days left.

In a rare display of unanimity, the Security Council, over the objections of the General Assembly, takes authority over this matter and begins debate.  However, the council does not remain unanimous for long.

The US and Britain have proposed using a small nuclear explosion to alter the path of the asteroid.  The US even volunteers to supply one of its own rockets – which will, of course, fly a UN flag.  A small but persistent group of anti-nuclear activists monopolize the TV cameras outside the UN.

“Can this evidence, mostly generated in the US, be trusted?” asks the Chinese ambassador.  “Is this asteroid really a weapon of mass destruction… or an excuse for precipitous unilateral orbit change?”

The US replies that it is not able to reveal all of its sources without compromising national security but that it is absolutely certain of its data.  PowerPoint slides showing the trajectory of the asteroid are presented by the Secretary of State.

There is general agreement among scientists that, due to the shape of the solar system, any impact is likely to be near the equator.  There is no agreement on how the higher latitudes will be affected.  Some feel that the resulting dust cloud will reverse global warming.  There is significant support for the asteroid in low-lying countries far from the tropics.

199 days left.

Venezuela, currently one of the temporary members of The Security Council and expected to support action since it is in the impact zone, surprises observers by condemning this “Yankee plot to destabilize the regime of Grand Emperor Chavez.”

Questions are asked in the US Congress.  Liberal members ask “do we have a sufficient plan for dealing with the aftermath of an incursion into the asteroid belt?”  Conservatives want to know “how can any expenditure be justified when scientists are not unanimous and there is still a significant chance – even according to those who support the asteroid-collision theory – that the asteroid will miss the earth?”

France warns the United States and Britain against any unilateral action against the asteroid.  After all, both countries have signed a convention promising not to be the first to launch nuclear weapons from space.  France understands the urgency but is sure that no situation is so serious that it can’t be dealt with through diplomacy and discussion.  It is also time, says France, to consider whether the sanctions on Iran might be a little too severe.  At least cognac exports to that county should be allowed on humanitarian grounds.

99 days left.  Texas, it turns out, is the most likely point of impact.

A CNN poll shows that most people in San Francisco feel that it would be better to evacuate Texas than use a nuclear weapon against the asteroid.  The California legislature establishes a quota system for Texans attempting to enter California “for health and environmental reasons.”

The President, a dark horse blogger candidate from Rhode Island who catapulted into fame on the eve of the Democratic primaries by promising URU - Unilateral  Rejection of Unilateralism, reaffirms her campaign pledge but says that the US may suspend its financial support of the UN anti-asteroid program if action is not taken “soon”.  She is roundly flamed by some of her best blogger friends for threatening the world body in this way.

49 days left.

OPEC announces that, for the sake of the world, it is doubling oil prices and cutting production to “compensate” for the likely loss of Texas oil capacity.

Russia joins OPEC and immediately assumes the presidency.  China incorporates the “breakaway province of Nigeria” as a precaution.

9 days left.

Unfortunately, we can’t see any further into the future because, at this point, our pre-viewed CNN broadcasts become all celebrities all of the time.  We don’t know whether the lack of significant news going forward signifies the end of intelligent life on earth, a format change by CNN, or both.

Valentine’s Day Warning

Like any married couple or management team with offices across the hall from each other, Mary and I communicate mainly by email. However, we met physically at the coffee machine the other day.

“Didja get the links I sent you?” I ask conversationally.

“You didn’t send me any links,” she says.

“I most certainly did.  Coupla sites that I know you’ll be interested in. Do all sorts of good stuff that the charities you work with may want to take advantage of.”

“I didn’t get any links from you today. When did you send them? Are you sure you sent them?”

“Yes, I’m sure.” This is getting ugly now. “You probably deleted them accidentally.”

“You can look in my deleted mail if you want.”

I look.  They’re not there.  I accuse her of misfiling them. She challenges me to search her mail. I know how to make Outlook do that so I do.  Meanwhile I look in the Junk E-Mail folder that Outlook maintains.  Lots of stuff from me – aha – but nothing more recent than the last two weeks.

“I never look in there,” she says.  Quietly, I make sure Outlook will never Junk me again on her machine.  The Search Folder I set up on her machine has now been fully populated.  Still no sign of the missing emails.  I recheck my machine; they’re in the Sent Folder where they belong.  Hmmm….

“Why don’t you just resend them if you have them,” she says.

“That’s not the point,” I say.  As soon as the phone rings and I get on a conference call, my mind wanders and I realize where my mail is:  Postini has it!  Mail consisting mainly of links – even if it’s from me – looks suspicious to this generally very efficient and intelligent spam filter that our email provider runs. She logs into Postini and I make sure it’ll never reject me again on her behalf.

Now how many romances are gonna die this Valentine’s Day because e-cupid’s arrows are ensnared in a spam trap? Any lusty or suggestive remarks are almost certainly gonna spring the snare. Don’t let it happen to you.

E-mail from Bruiser

Dear Mom:

I don’t want to worry you but my new house has NO indoor facilities;  I have to go outside for everything. I’m not even sure the Master and Mistress read newspapers; they just sit in front of their computers all day.

But you’d be proud of me. I’m being good even though it’s very cold out. Only two mistakes in two days.

Aunt Sheba isn’t very much fun. She’s a Lab like you and something else but she WON’T play. I thought she was gonna bite my head off when I tried to start a little game of grr-grr-grr like you and I do.

I did learn to go up steps!  That was cool but it was very scary! Also I thought the Master was going to drop me.  I can run up all the way from the landing now (Good Boy! Good Boy!) but I’ll never be able to learn to go down; that’s too hard.

The Master says we’re going to hike up a mountain. I don’t know what that is but I think it has lots of steps because he said I had to practice. Probably he’ll carry me down like he does on the steps; I’ll just whine until he does.

The Mistress is very nice.  She has this book about how to discipline your dog that her sister gave her. One corner has already been chewed off; I think I’ll do the other one when I get through with some furniture I’m working on.

Oh, and I went for a W-A-L-K.  Aunt Sheba came too.  We had to both wear necklaces like you have around our necks; auntie’s has jingly things on it like yours but mine doesn’t. Then they attached leather ropes to them so we could pull the Master and Mistress around and tell them where to go. They weren’t very obedient, though.

I have my OWN CAVE!  It’s very cool.  Aunt Sheba is too big to get in but she did stick her teeth in and take one of my toys. The Mistress told her she was a bad girl.  My cave goes under where the Master and Mistress sleep at night so it’s really safe – I know you’d like that. And all I have to do is whine and they take me right outside. It would be a lot easier if they just had some newspaper but probably up here in the country they don’t know about modern conveniences.

Well, that’s about it.  I hope you and my sissies are OK; give them a nip for me. Maybe you can find them new homes WITH newspaper. I miss you all very much.

Whoof,

Bruiser

How to Keep Your Board from Meddling in Your Business

MediumNet delivered this guest blog from Larry Lazard, deceased former CEO of fictional hackoff.com.  I am not free to explain the technology involved in the transmission.

Seems like everyone is blogging about “making boards more effective” – Matt Blumberg, Fred Wilson, Brad Feld, even Tom Evslin who really should know better.  Why do you want your board snooping around your company?  You think they’re gonna add value or something?  Gimme a break! You’re the CEO; run your company and add your own value.

Look, they’re gonna meet.  Nothing you can do about that so no use whining.  The thing is to make sure they don’t get in the way of anything important.  Here’s my lessons on keeping them out of your hair.

1.        Meet by phone whenever possible.  Most of them will be doing their email or goosing their admin or something and not paying any attention at all.  They’ll just vote when you ask’em to.

2.        Never distribute anything in advance; they might read it and get themselves all confused.  Just present it all: gets you through most of the meeting.

3.        Never number the pages of what you are presenting.  Lots of time can be used constructively figuring out what page everybody is on.  If you email the material (preferably just after the start of the meeting), send lots of separate files.  Turkeys’ll never know what to look at.  Bonus suggestion: send slightly different copies of files with different pagination to everyone; it’s a lotta work but it’s worth it.

4.        Have your CFO present numbers, lots of numbers.  Make sure they get a chance to go over variances in the pencil budget.

5.        If you have to meet in person – it is gonna happen sometime – use food.  Any discussion you don’t want input on should be right after lunch.  No one’s gonna be awake then.

6.        Speaking of lunch, you can play this for lots of time.  Have your dumbest admin take orders off some huge takeout menu. Get what type of bread they want, dressing, meat, lettuce, all that. Then have a smart admin shuffle the list so NO order is right.  Wrong bread with wrong filling etc.  No veggies for vegetarians (they tend to be nitpickers anyway). Kills lots of time and helps make sure they meet on the phone next time.  BTW, they’ll pay no attention to anything between when lunch is ordered and when it comes so minimum of an hour.

7.        Do bring up board comp and director’s liability insurance.  Sure to get their attention and won’t interfere with the real business of the company.

8.        Have a nine person board with three insiders, four VCs and two people who don’t have a clue.  Just four VCs alone should guarantee gridlock.

9.        Every meeting should run way over schedule.  You control the agenda: presentations up front; substance in the third overtime period.

10.    If they’ve gotta discuss something, get’em down in the weeds.  Color of the office; words for the new ad campaign; what bank to deposit tax payments in.  That keeps everybody out of trouble.

11.    If you’re public and their questions are going where you don’t want to go, tell them you’d be glad to answer but that’ll make them insiders for the next two years.  You can also tell by who squirms who was planning to sell.

Of course I don’t endorse anything Larry says.  A good and effective board makes a good company.