Fractals of Change

Great Time to be a Nerd

My friend Jeff Pulver was just telling me that it’s a great time be a nerd. Right on cue I walked past the poster above which I think advertises a new TV show.

On the same theme, Mary asked the other day what all us nerds would’ve done for a living if there weren’t computers or other electronic devices for us to play with. It’s a very frightening thought. I thought I’d be a writer like my father but met my first computer, an IBM 7090 mainframe, in the computer lab at college when I was nineteen (1962) and found this was a much better way to make a living. Didn’t get around to writing fiction again until a couple of years ago when I wrote hackoff.com: an historic murder mystery set in the Internet bubble and rubble – not surprisingly, nerd Dom Montain is a major character of that book.

So what would we have done? Took some thought. Not many of would have been gymnasts, super warriors, craftsman (takes fine motor skills), or very good farmers.

We would’ve counted, added, subtracted, multiplied and divided. Before there were computers, there were lots of numbers that had to be crunched by hand. When you go over the George Washington Bridge or ascend the Empire State Building, remember that the only mathematical tools for all the engineering calculations were adding machines and slide rules (easy to use for a nerd); presumably the calculations were done at least twice.

All the accounts of everything had to be done by hand. All monthly statements manually totaled (at best on an adding machine).

So we would’ve been accountants or engineers or employed by such.

It’s much more fun to teach computers to do all that work (what programming is all about); we never have to do the same thing twice – at least until we reimplement it for a new computer or operating system. And we get great toys to play with.

Jeff’s right.

Cause for Global Warming Discovered

The graphs below from an article by Natural Resources Canada show the movement of the magnetic North Pole. As the article says “The change in velocity of the North Magnetic Pole since the early 1970s has been remarkable – 9 km/yr to 41 km/yr.”

And this graph from the report of the Nobel-sharing International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows an accelerated increase in global warming during exactly the same period (left scale is difference from the 1961-1990 average).

 

Unfortunately the IPCC was distracted by the coincident rise in certain atmospheric gasses and so missed the true cause of global warming. The Director of Natural Resources Canada is precluded from running for President of the US because he wasn’t born here.

OK. This is all junk science. I admit it. Neither Natural Resources Canada nor anyone else I know of has claimed a link between this accelerated movement of the magnetic pole and global temperatures. We could invent a mechanism for cause and effect, however: the location of the magnetic pole affects the shape and poles of the earth’s magnetic field (obviously) which has an effect on incoming cosmic radiation which has an effect on cloud formation which has an effect on reflectivity which has an effect on temperature. It’s a little harder to do the opposite and imagine how warming caused the pole to move but I’m sure some smart reader’ll do that.

All this is just meant as a warning against taking apparent correlations too seriously.

John R. Christy, Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama at Huntsville and a participant in the IPCC (he calculates that he is .0001 of a Nobel Laureate) writes in today’s Wall Street Journal:

“I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

“There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations….

“It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

“Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"”

He’s not saying (and I’m not saying) that anthropogenic activity is NOT causing global warming. He is saying we have less than proof and I’m saying we’ve got to stay skeptical even as we take some obvious actions like reducing our dependence on fossil fuels that we’re running short of anyway. The Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth was deserved since it’s an effective and dramatic polemic; a Nobel Prize for shoddy science seems an inducement to substituting rhetoric for thought in making crucial resource allocation decisions.

Fast Forwarding Reality

From an article in today’s New York Times:  “..more viewers [than in the past] are watching shows delayed rather than live, using TiVo and other DVRs. Research indicates those viewers are more likely to fast-forward through spots than those who watch live TV.”

Gee, that’s sort of strange.  I’d much rather fast-forward live TV than my DVR.  Fast-forwarding live TV gets you to the future.  You can fast-forward Bloomberg, for example, and know what stock prices are gonna be an hour from now.  Fast-forward ESPN to the end of the race and then call your bookie.

Lobbyists and PACs can fast-forward to November, 2008 and target their contributions only to the winners-to-be.  We can fast-forward CNN and find out what milestones the Iraqi government will meet.  We can find out which movies to see by fast-forwarding to next year’s Oscars.  We could also fast-forward some reality shows but we’d see the same stupid things then that we see now.  Same problem with fast-forwarding The Donald and most celebrities.

Back in the present, it’s pretty clear that pre-recorded programs are worth more than live ones most of the time because you can watch when you want and because you CAN fast-forward past the commercials and dull spots (full disclosure: I don’t always watch when the bad guys have the ball or are at bat.  I skip all celebrity news.).

So let’s fast-forward the technology news into the future.  Streaming (real time) video is a solution looking for a problem.  What we really want to do is download stuff fast and then view it at our own pace.  The interesting thing is that a straight forward evolution of today’s Internet gets us to faster and faster downloads while streaming is problematical. Expensive technologies like Verizon’s FiOS are designed to support the streaming we don’t really want.  Hmmm….

Related posts:

Who Needs Streaming Video?

Television and the Internet

Will the UN Save the World from Asteroids?

Reuters story on CNN: “An asteroid may come uncomfortably close to Earth in 2036 and the United Nations should assume responsibility for a space mission to deflect it, a group of astronauts, engineers and scientists said on Saturday.”

In this exclusive post, Fractals of Change takes you into the future by pre-viewing newscasts from CNN (technology is under NDA and can’t be revealed). 

It’s 2010.  The UN has accepted this immense responsibility (along with increased funding).  Much sooner than expected, the challenge has arrived.  A comet alters the course of a Mount Everest size asteroid; there is a 88.7% that it will strike the earth in 399 days according to certain scientists.  Others, of course, dispute this number. 

An audit reveals that the son-in-law of the Secretary General has misspent most of the funds allocated for the UN anti-asteroid rocket program.  His defenders point out that no threat was expected before 2036 by which time his “alternative investments” would have paid off and the funds would have been replaced with interest.  It’s unfair to condemn him for the precipitous timing of this threat, they say.

Iran currently holds the rotating chairmanship of UNAACA (United Nations Asteroid Avoidance Coordination Assembly).  The chairman regrets to say that the committee will not be able to meet until the current sanctions imposed on Iran for above ground nuclear weapon testing are lifted.

299 days left.

In a rare display of unanimity, the Security Council, over the objections of the General Assembly, takes authority over this matter and begins debate.  However, the council does not remain unanimous for long.

The US and Britain have proposed using a small nuclear explosion to alter the path of the asteroid.  The US even volunteers to supply one of its own rockets – which will, of course, fly a UN flag.  A small but persistent group of anti-nuclear activists monopolize the TV cameras outside the UN.

“Can this evidence, mostly generated in the US, be trusted?” asks the Chinese ambassador.  “Is this asteroid really a weapon of mass destruction… or an excuse for precipitous unilateral orbit change?”

The US replies that it is not able to reveal all of its sources without compromising national security but that it is absolutely certain of its data.  PowerPoint slides showing the trajectory of the asteroid are presented by the Secretary of State.

There is general agreement among scientists that, due to the shape of the solar system, any impact is likely to be near the equator.  There is no agreement on how the higher latitudes will be affected.  Some feel that the resulting dust cloud will reverse global warming.  There is significant support for the asteroid in low-lying countries far from the tropics.

199 days left.

Venezuela, currently one of the temporary members of The Security Council and expected to support action since it is in the impact zone, surprises observers by condemning this “Yankee plot to destabilize the regime of Grand Emperor Chavez.”

Questions are asked in the US Congress.  Liberal members ask “do we have a sufficient plan for dealing with the aftermath of an incursion into the asteroid belt?”  Conservatives want to know “how can any expenditure be justified when scientists are not unanimous and there is still a significant chance – even according to those who support the asteroid-collision theory – that the asteroid will miss the earth?”

France warns the United States and Britain against any unilateral action against the asteroid.  After all, both countries have signed a convention promising not to be the first to launch nuclear weapons from space.  France understands the urgency but is sure that no situation is so serious that it can’t be dealt with through diplomacy and discussion.  It is also time, says France, to consider whether the sanctions on Iran might be a little too severe.  At least cognac exports to that county should be allowed on humanitarian grounds.

99 days left.  Texas, it turns out, is the most likely point of impact.

A CNN poll shows that most people in San Francisco feel that it would be better to evacuate Texas than use a nuclear weapon against the asteroid.  The California legislature establishes a quota system for Texans attempting to enter California “for health and environmental reasons.”

The President, a dark horse blogger candidate from Rhode Island who catapulted into fame on the eve of the Democratic primaries by promising URU - Unilateral  Rejection of Unilateralism, reaffirms her campaign pledge but says that the US may suspend its financial support of the UN anti-asteroid program if action is not taken “soon”.  She is roundly flamed by some of her best blogger friends for threatening the world body in this way.

49 days left.

OPEC announces that, for the sake of the world, it is doubling oil prices and cutting production to “compensate” for the likely loss of Texas oil capacity.

Russia joins OPEC and immediately assumes the presidency.  China incorporates the “breakaway province of Nigeria” as a precaution.

9 days left.

Unfortunately, we can’t see any further into the future because, at this point, our pre-viewed CNN broadcasts become all celebrities all of the time.  We don’t know whether the lack of significant news going forward signifies the end of intelligent life on earth, a format change by CNN, or both.

Valentine’s Day Warning

Like any married couple or management team with offices across the hall from each other, Mary and I communicate mainly by email. However, we met physically at the coffee machine the other day.

“Didja get the links I sent you?” I ask conversationally.

“You didn’t send me any links,” she says.

“I most certainly did.  Coupla sites that I know you’ll be interested in. Do all sorts of good stuff that the charities you work with may want to take advantage of.”

“I didn’t get any links from you today. When did you send them? Are you sure you sent them?”

“Yes, I’m sure.” This is getting ugly now. “You probably deleted them accidentally.”

“You can look in my deleted mail if you want.”

I look.  They’re not there.  I accuse her of misfiling them. She challenges me to search her mail. I know how to make Outlook do that so I do.  Meanwhile I look in the Junk E-Mail folder that Outlook maintains.  Lots of stuff from me – aha – but nothing more recent than the last two weeks.

“I never look in there,” she says.  Quietly, I make sure Outlook will never Junk me again on her machine.  The Search Folder I set up on her machine has now been fully populated.  Still no sign of the missing emails.  I recheck my machine; they’re in the Sent Folder where they belong.  Hmmm….

“Why don’t you just resend them if you have them,” she says.

“That’s not the point,” I say.  As soon as the phone rings and I get on a conference call, my mind wanders and I realize where my mail is:  Postini has it!  Mail consisting mainly of links – even if it’s from me – looks suspicious to this generally very efficient and intelligent spam filter that our email provider runs. She logs into Postini and I make sure it’ll never reject me again on her behalf.

Now how many romances are gonna die this Valentine’s Day because e-cupid’s arrows are ensnared in a spam trap? Any lusty or suggestive remarks are almost certainly gonna spring the snare. Don’t let it happen to you.

E-mail from Bruiser

Dear Mom:

I don’t want to worry you but my new house has NO indoor facilities;  I have to go outside for everything. I’m not even sure the Master and Mistress read newspapers; they just sit in front of their computers all day.

But you’d be proud of me. I’m being good even though it’s very cold out. Only two mistakes in two days.

Aunt Sheba isn’t very much fun. She’s a Lab like you and something else but she WON’T play. I thought she was gonna bite my head off when I tried to start a little game of grr-grr-grr like you and I do.

I did learn to go up steps!  That was cool but it was very scary! Also I thought the Master was going to drop me.  I can run up all the way from the landing now (Good Boy! Good Boy!) but I’ll never be able to learn to go down; that’s too hard.

The Master says we’re going to hike up a mountain. I don’t know what that is but I think it has lots of steps because he said I had to practice. Probably he’ll carry me down like he does on the steps; I’ll just whine until he does.

The Mistress is very nice.  She has this book about how to discipline your dog that her sister gave her. One corner has already been chewed off; I think I’ll do the other one when I get through with some furniture I’m working on.

Oh, and I went for a W-A-L-K.  Aunt Sheba came too.  We had to both wear necklaces like you have around our necks; auntie’s has jingly things on it like yours but mine doesn’t. Then they attached leather ropes to them so we could pull the Master and Mistress around and tell them where to go. They weren’t very obedient, though.

I have my OWN CAVE!  It’s very cool.  Aunt Sheba is too big to get in but she did stick her teeth in and take one of my toys. The Mistress told her she was a bad girl.  My cave goes under where the Master and Mistress sleep at night so it’s really safe – I know you’d like that. And all I have to do is whine and they take me right outside. It would be a lot easier if they just had some newspaper but probably up here in the country they don’t know about modern conveniences.

Well, that’s about it.  I hope you and my sissies are OK; give them a nip for me. Maybe you can find them new homes WITH newspaper. I miss you all very much.

Whoof,

Bruiser

How to Keep Your Board from Meddling in Your Business

MediumNet delivered this guest blog from Larry Lazard, deceased former CEO of fictional hackoff.com.  I am not free to explain the technology involved in the transmission.

Seems like everyone is blogging about “making boards more effective” – Matt Blumberg, Fred Wilson, Brad Feld, even Tom Evslin who really should know better.  Why do you want your board snooping around your company?  You think they’re gonna add value or something?  Gimme a break! You’re the CEO; run your company and add your own value.

Look, they’re gonna meet.  Nothing you can do about that so no use whining.  The thing is to make sure they don’t get in the way of anything important.  Here’s my lessons on keeping them out of your hair.

1.        Meet by phone whenever possible.  Most of them will be doing their email or goosing their admin or something and not paying any attention at all.  They’ll just vote when you ask’em to.

2.        Never distribute anything in advance; they might read it and get themselves all confused.  Just present it all: gets you through most of the meeting.

3.        Never number the pages of what you are presenting.  Lots of time can be used constructively figuring out what page everybody is on.  If you email the material (preferably just after the start of the meeting), send lots of separate files.  Turkeys’ll never know what to look at.  Bonus suggestion: send slightly different copies of files with different pagination to everyone; it’s a lotta work but it’s worth it.

4.        Have your CFO present numbers, lots of numbers.  Make sure they get a chance to go over variances in the pencil budget.

5.        If you have to meet in person – it is gonna happen sometime – use food.  Any discussion you don’t want input on should be right after lunch.  No one’s gonna be awake then.

6.        Speaking of lunch, you can play this for lots of time.  Have your dumbest admin take orders off some huge takeout menu. Get what type of bread they want, dressing, meat, lettuce, all that. Then have a smart admin shuffle the list so NO order is right.  Wrong bread with wrong filling etc.  No veggies for vegetarians (they tend to be nitpickers anyway). Kills lots of time and helps make sure they meet on the phone next time.  BTW, they’ll pay no attention to anything between when lunch is ordered and when it comes so minimum of an hour.

7.        Do bring up board comp and director’s liability insurance.  Sure to get their attention and won’t interfere with the real business of the company.

8.        Have a nine person board with three insiders, four VCs and two people who don’t have a clue.  Just four VCs alone should guarantee gridlock.

9.        Every meeting should run way over schedule.  You control the agenda: presentations up front; substance in the third overtime period.

10.    If they’ve gotta discuss something, get’em down in the weeds.  Color of the office; words for the new ad campaign; what bank to deposit tax payments in.  That keeps everybody out of trouble.

11.    If you’re public and their questions are going where you don’t want to go, tell them you’d be glad to answer but that’ll make them insiders for the next two years.  You can also tell by who squirms who was planning to sell.

Of course I don’t endorse anything Larry says.  A good and effective board makes a good company.

Customer Call - A Prehistory

President Hu Jintao of China is not happy about the interruption.  Bad enough that North Korea’s “Dear Leader” has dissed him by testing a nuke near China’s border after explicit warning; now George Bush is insisting on talking to him “personally”.

“Mr. President,” says his aide, “we do suggest you take this call.”

“Why? Asks the Chinese President.  “That GeorgeBush is so tiresome and he will be overthrown in just two years.  A coup is scheduled in that crazy country just three weeks from now.”

“He says he is calling as our biggest customer,” says the aide humbly.

“OK, OK.”

“Howdy,” says the US President.  “What are you planning to do about those evildoers with nucular weapons just east of you’alls border?”

Pause while the interpreters deal with “nucular”.

“We think the action of the DPRK was brazen and do not condone it.  We are appealing for calm.”

“Are you’all going to vote for or against a complete embargo on North Korea until they agree to scrapping their nucular weapons and inspections to make sure they do what they say?”

“We think such actions might further inflame the situation.  We prefer a more diplomatic approach.”

“Mr. President,” says the President of the United States, “I respect the sovereign rights of the great nation of China.  I would like to share with you’all what the US will do if there is no acceptable action THIS WEEK in the UN.”

“Mr. President, says the President of China, “I hope the United States will do nothing to further inflame a dangerous situation.”

“The United States of America,” says the President of the United States of America, “will declare a complete economic boycott of North Korea and…”

“Mr. President, “ the President of China interrupts, “that would be inflammatory.  And it is unlikely that it will have much effect since the US currently has no significant trade with the DPRK.”

“Mr. President, “the President of the United States continues, “you didn’t let me finish.  We will declare a complete economic boycott of North Korea AND ALL THOSE WHO TRADE WITH IT.”

The President of China says he will call back.  He consults with his advisors.

“They cannot do this,” he says but it is really a question.

“Well,” says the bravest of the advisors to the Chinese president, “ we don’t supply them with food and we don’t supply them with energy and…”

“But their Christmas is coming.  Their shelves will be empty.  He wouldn’t dare.”

“Honorable President, “says his trade chief, “ the Christmas goods are already at sea.  If they let them land,  there will only be minor shortages.”

“Call the President of Wal-Mart,” says the President of China.  “Call Dell Computer.  We will not stand for this.”

The bad news is reported back promptly.  The presidents of Wal-Mart and Dell are in urgent talks with alternate suppliers in Malaysia, India, and Taiwan.

“They owe us money!” the President of China shouts.  “We hold zillions of dollars of their bonds.”

“There is an old Chinese proverb,” he is reminded: “if you owe the bank one hundred dollars, they own you.  If you owe the bank a million dollars (let alone a zillion), you own them.”

“He won’t dare! His domestic opposition will not allow it.”

“Already American factories are rehiring in anticipation of no competition from China.  The head of the AFL-CIO had dinner at the White House last night.  Lou Dobbs is calling for a third term.”

“What is the AFL-CIO? What’s a Lou Dobbs?” asks the President of China.  All is explained to him.

Now you know why China made the motion for sanctions in the UN (I wish) and insisted that, no matter how Russia and France vote, the great nation of China will exercise its sovereign right not to send aid or permit any trade which would underwrite the nuclear ambitions of the brazen despot to its east.

You can never tell what’ll happen when a CEO has to take a call from his biggest customer.

Bipartisanship Flu

The Centers for Spin Control (CSC) believe they have isolated the meme responsible for the sudden outbreak of bipartisanship in the US Congress.  Observers have been alarmed to see Newt Gingrich, Dennis Hastert, Nancy Pelosi, and Bill Frist all similarly afflicted.  Symptoms include a sudden over-whelming concern for separation of powers and foaming at the mouth.

Memeogenisis, according to the CSC, occurred when federal agents obtained and used a warrant to search the congressional offices of Rep. William Jefferson.  The meme has been identified as a member of the SI family of memes.  Your reporter was not able to determine whether SI stands for “self interest” or “self importance.”

Evidence that the meme is virulent includes both the fact that it is able to spread freely across the congressional aisle and that it renders its victims incapable of predicting the reaction of their constituents.  For example, it has taken a drumbeat of polling results to get Bill Frist to moderate his original outrage and repeat the mantra that no Congressperson or Senator should be above the law.  A cure may involve writing this one thousand times without the aid of a word processor.

CSC notes the difference between the outrage caused by this meme among congresspeople and their reaction to the fact that their constituents have been subject to WARRANTLESS wiretap.  In the wiretap case, outrage did not break out – even among those congresspeople who had been briefed – until the taps became public, a much more normal reaction according to the CSC.

Seriously – it’s hard to take this seriously.  The constitutional argument from the opponents of the search is bunk.  The founders set up three branches for check and balance reasons.  The executive and the judicial branches agreed in this case that a search was reasonable (unreasonable searches are constitutionally forbidden).  Too bad if the legislative branch finds this threatening.  It is NOT an exercise of unchecked unilateral executive power.

The logic of the search is compelling as well.  There is ample evidence of the congressman using his ELECTED office for illegal personal gain including a tape of him soliciting a bribe and marked bribe dollars found in his freezer at home.  It is reasonable to assume that he might also use his PHYSICAL office for illicit purposes, especially if he knew that no congressional office has been searched since the founding of the Republic.  Moreover, he had not complied with subpoenas to turn over potential evidence from that office.

But what about the precedent?  I think it’s a good precedent: Congress has made a habit of exempting itself from the laws it imposes on the rest of us (for our own good, of course).  OSHA? Not on the Hill.  Social Security?  Not good enough for our elected officials.  Freedom of Information Act? Fuhgetaboutit.  Your offices can be searched.  Mine can.  And most of us aren’t in space paid for by the Federal Government.

Is there a danger that an out-of-control executive could use searches for intimidation?  Yes.  That’s why warrants ARE important.  This should not be something the executive can do unilaterally.  This kind of search should not be done lightly.

That being said, aren’t there some Republican offices that need to be searched as well?

tech.memeorandum Predicts the Future!

I’ve long been a fan of tech.memeorandum.  Now here is clear evidence from technorati that tech.memeorandum predicts the future!  Apparently it was able to highlight an article I didn’t write until yesterday way back on 11/18/05.

Now if they could only do that with new product announcements.  Would save a lot of uncertainty to build only successes.  And earnings releases.  Wow!  This probably IS the next huge thing.

Amnesty for European Settlers

For some reason historians appear to be ignoring the partial amnesty granted to European settlers of North America in the mid 1600s by the United Tribes of America (UTA).  Very few of these settlers had properly issued visas for the areas they were settling.  In fact, those who landed at Plymouth Rock had only paperwork for a colony in Virginia!

Opponents of amnesty among the tribes were apoplectic.  Chief Lou the Dawber of the Conestoga NoNos was said to be so angry that his usual smoke signals were sent without benefit of any fire other than his own rage.  Representatives of the Mighty Hunter’s Union (MHU) pointed out that the wages for hunters were being depressed by the settlers’ unfair labor practice of keeping food animals in pens from which they could be harvested without the benefit of any hunt at all.  Similarly, the Eagle-Eyed Gatherers Guild (EEGG) testified that their unemployment rate was soaring because the settlers stubbornly planted foodstuffs near their kitchen doors rather than seeking food where ever it chose to grow.

Many brought up the sad results of the amnesty earlier granted to New England settlers by the Patuxet Tribe.  Without authorization a member of that tribe – Squanto – even showed the settlers better methods for living off the land.  The immediate result was OK: the settlers invited Squanto to dinner.  But afterwards the results were terrible: more settlers.  The missionary efforts of the Powhatan Pocahontas had similar bad results.

The new immigrants (with the possible exception of John Smith) refused to learn the native languages of their new home.  They insisted on education in their own language.  They put up signage in barbarian English where natives easily could read nature’s own trail markers.

There’s no question that the newcomers were bad for the environment.  And no question that they’ve overrun the place.

By the time my ancestors came over on the lowest decks of ships from Russia one-step ahead of pogroms The Mayflower was ancient history.  I’m not sure what kind of visas my great-grandparents had or how they got all their young children through Ellis Island but I’m glad they did.  I’m sure they depressed the prevailing wage for a while.  It was their children – not them – who became fluent in English.  They certainly dressed funny and they probably smelled funny, too.  But I’m glad they came and glad they got to stay.

So I’m not outraged by a bunch of immigrants – legal and illegal – waving American flags and trying to claim a place in the sun and an opportunity to work.  The fact is that we do need their labor; that’s why they keep finding jobs.  The fact is that we do need them demographically to keep Social Security and Medicare alive as we native-born get statistically older and older.  The fact is that we benefit from the energy of those who risk so much to work for so little.

But, some say, they’re illegal.

Do you have a copy of your ancestor’s paperwork?  Only if they came over recently.  We have so many illegal “guest workers” because we’ve been too hypocritical to deal with the fact that we needed them.  We “let” the most persistent of them in; we eagerly hired them at low wages and often in bad working conditions.  Some of us exploited them.  Being illegal has hurt them more than it hurt us since it left them with so little recourse.  The time has come to legalize those who want to be American citizens AND to change the law so needed immigrants can arrive legally.

But, some say, they are depressing working conditions and not paying their fair share of taxes. 

If they are legal, they will have legal protection for their working conditions.  They won’t provide an endrun for unscrupulous employers around safe working conditions.  If they are legal they will be able to pay income and social security as well as sales tax, which, of course, they already pay.

But, some say, we will be rewarding illegal behavior.

Well, I agree that those who applied for a visa ought to be in line before those who didn’t.  But those who’ve been working for a long time deserve consideration as well.  They have worked without most of the social safety net that most Americans take for granted. They have been good citizens even though they’re not citizens.  Obviously, those who have been convicted of crimes other than illegal immigration should be deported.

But rewarding illegal behavior is a bad precedent.

The bad precedent was our hypocritical behavior in allowing a mass “illegal” immigration and hiring the immigrants.  The precedent won’t matter if we change the immigration laws so that the workers we need (and their families) can get in legally.

What about homeland security?  Don’t we have to defend our borders?

Hmm… Let’s see.  How many Hispanic terrorists have we seen?  Didn’t the 9/11 hijackers have visas?  In fact, we may need better border control  We’ll have that  as soon as we legalize the employment line that stretches South of our border and end the inducement for a mad dash across the desert.  We also get better security by increasing the population of energetic young people who want to be in the United States for all the right reasons.  Recent immigrants have always been a large percentage of both our armed forces and police forces.

Apparently politicians of both parties would like to avoid making a decision – especially in an election year.  But NO decision IS a decision.  It preserves the status quo.  It is not an acceptable status quo.