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August 24, 2008

We’re Madder Than Hell And…

We did it because we were mad. We did it ourselves with precious little help from our leaders. The average US price of regular gasoline is down 11% to $3.70 since the Independence Day peak of $4.14. That's still a lot higher than $2.76 a year ago; but we're also still mad. By coincidence, BTW, the price of gas has come down by just about the full amount of the 45.8 cents/gallon federal gas tax that didn't get suspended (good).

The price of crude oil has fallen even further from its peak. At $114.78/barrel it's down 22% from its high – and we didn't draw a single barrel from the strategic petroleum reserve (good) or increase drilling (even though I think we should). The smart money on $200/barrel is now forecasting we'll see $100 again first.

Somehow speculation didn't get outlawed (good) and speculators are apparently driving the price of oil down and the dollar up just as they were doing the opposite last month. They don't really care; they just try to get where we're going before we get there. Probably some lost their shirts (or their investors' shirts) when we got mad and started a buyers strike.

We slowed down without government lowering the speed limit. Good for us.

We are increasing the mileage of our fleet as fast as manufacturers can switch their production to gas-sippers and much faster than any government mandate could or would have dared to make us do that. The car makers can't lobby us out of self-control; we made them change their product line.

We're driving less – not happily but we're doing it. We're mad.

Meanwhile we're getting ready for winter by insulating, buying wood pellet stoves (or even electric heaters), installing better thermostats. If nature cooperates, a lot less oil and gas will go up our chimneys this winter than last. That stuff costs real money.

Our anger has scared anti-drilling politicians into "considering a compromise". A little more anger and they may do something real.

We won't stay mad forever. Already $3.70/gallon seems a lot lower on the way down than it did on the way up. Even our anger won't stop developing countries from developing into nations of drivers and home-heaters (although their development may slow a little because there's lots of stuff we're still not buying while we pay for oil).

Anger's great for short term stuff; so is fear. Without leadership, the energy of anger is dissipated on short-term measures. With great leadership, anger and fear become the launch pad for long term change. Remember Pearl Harbor (at least from the movies)? Remember Sputnik (trite but true)?

For all the assurance we have about whatever candidate we support, it'll be well into 2009 before we know if we have a leader. The opportunities (and the anger) are there.

 

 

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