Game Changers for the Next Five Years

12/16/2010 12:10:24 PM

Change is a fractal; its results are chaotic. Small effects can have huge consequences; a black swan may or may not matter. The rate of change – especially the propagation rate – has accelerated in a time of easy and cheap global travel and communication. Ten year planning is an academic exercise of almost no practical consequence; even five year planning is presumptuous. Nevertheless, here is a list of things which may or may not happen in the next five years; some are mutually exclusive. It's at least fun to think what'll happen to the best-laid plans and the most learned prophesies if they do.

Although each of the above is unlikely, it is likely IMHO that one or more of them will occur in the next five years. Almost certain is that some things not on the list will occur by 2016 and have more effect than any of the above.

If you suspect that this list is actually the work plan for my blogging, you're right. But all subject to change.