It's not about us! It's not about Israel; it's not about America.
For years we (Jews, Americans, others) have accepted the argument that the "Arab Street" seethes purely with rage against Israel and the United States and is only restrained by the despots of various stripes who run Arab countries. One corollary to that argument, of course, is that, we should support the despots. Another corollary is that, if the United States didn't support Israel's right to exist, the tensions in the Middle East and anti-Americanism would disappear from the region.
Now it turns out that the Arab Street seethes with the same passions as the Boston Wharves in Tea Party times or the French Boulevards at the beginning of the French Revolution. People want more bread; people want more freedom; people hate their oppressive governments; people want to take power from oligarchs; and, yes, some people would like to become the new oligarchs once the old ones have been dispatched. This explosion of regional rebellion was set off by single spark of self-immolation in Tunisia; clearly the powder of rage was already well-stocked in the region. With hindsight, it's obvious why.
The revolutions are facilitated by Facebook and Twitter; but people don't die to tweet. They do risk death for freedom and prosperity for their children. Increased global awareness made clear how quickly even huge countries with great poverty like India and China and - probably more to the point in the Middle East – Turkey can raise their standard of living if all wealth is not siphoned off for the benefit of the rulers. The explosion happened and the genie's lamp has been blown to smithereens; there's no going back.
In the short term the new Arab reality which is arising is at least as dangerous to the US and Israel as the unstable dictatorships which are being overthrown. Anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism are real. You don't have to look beyond non-Arab Iran to see how a despot uses both to keep his power. Others may use these hatreds to gain power. Hamas in Gaza are a clear example of how "the wrong people" can emerge in the chaos of early democracy. On the other hand, corrupt old Fatah seems to have learned from its electoral rebuke and is now building a real economy and real life for many people on the West Bank.
What should we (the US) do?
First, of course, we have to remember that it's not about us.
Second, we have a right and responsibility to be clear about which lines can't be crossed. Neither new nor old states get a hall pass to support international terrorism. That lesson from 9/11 and Afghanistan must stand. Attacking neighboring states – yes, I mean Israel – isn't acceptable either.
Third, where we can, we should act to save lives and oppose tyrants – even if we don't know what comes next. I think this means we should enforce a no-fly zone in Libya despite not being prepared to do the same thing in, say, Saudi Arabia. Consistency is less important than doing what good we can do.
Fourth, when and wherever we draw a line, we must be prepared to defend it with force – regardless of whether the UN or even NATO approves. The President of the US should not say "Gadhafi MUST leave" or "Gadhafi MUST not bomb insurgents" unless there is an "or else" more powerful than a proposed Security Council resolution. The world will be in greater danger if it is not clear which lines can't be crossed.
Fifth and longer term, we need to take practical rather than symbolic steps away from dependence on oil from the Middle East. Assurances from the remaining despots that they will turn up the spigots to make up for temporary shortfalls are not reassuring.
Some revolutions end well; some don't. All of them lead to periods of scary chaos. Opportunists see opportunities. Good guys become bad guys and vice versa. The fate of the people of the Arab countries will be determined by those people. We need to remember that it isn't about us. It never was.
Related post:
Libya: No Decision is a Decision